Pioneering research validates coastal prediction models with 40 years of data on an Australian beach
Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach, located north of Sydney, Australia
IHCantabria participates in an international study that evaluates five numerical models to anticipate the evolution of the coastline in the face of climate change
How will beaches evolve over the decades and under the impact of climate change? Recent research published in the journal Coastal Engineering takes a decisive step towards answering this question by evaluating the performance of five numerical models for predicting shoreline change.
The study was led by Dr. Oxana Repina as part of her PhD thesis at the University of Wollongong, Australia, and is based on one of the largest and most consistent coastal datasets currently available to the scientific community: 40 years of measurements at Narrabeen-Collaroy beach, located north of Sydney. These data have been collected by the Water Research Laboratory at the University of New South Wales (UNSW), and previously by the Coastal Studies Unit at the University of Sydney, under the direction of Professor Andrew Short.
The article, entitled “Evaluating five shoreline change models against 40 years of field survey data at an embayed sandy beach“, has counted with the participation of researcher Camilo Jaramillo Cardona, from the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of the Universidad de Cantabria (IHCantabria). The work shows that, although the five models analyzed show similar average performance, their accuracy varies significantly depending on the area evaluated and local conditions. This reflects the complexity inherent in the prediction of coastal evolution, especially in embedded beaches, with complex morphological dynamics.
One of the most salient findings of the study is that hybrid models-those that combine cross-shore andlongshore processes-provide superior overall performance. However, the analysis also reveals that some models are particularly sensitive to biased wave data, requiring adjustments to improve their accuracy.
“Although there was no model that clearly outperformed the rest, the study has allowed us to identify strengths, weaknesses and opportunities for improvement in each approach,” explains Camilo Jaramillo. “This work allows us to propose concrete recommendations to make these models more robust and useful in real coastal management scenarios.”
The practical dimension of this research is one of its main contributions. Advances in the predictive capacity of these models will allow governments, planning agencies, insurers and coastal communities to better anticipate risks from coastal erosion and sea level rise. This will promote more informed and effective decision making in the context of climate change adaptation, ecosystem protection and resilient infrastructure design.
The study, led by Dr. Oxana Repina, involved the collaboration of an internationally recognized scientific team in the field of coastal dynamics. Co-authors include Rafael C. Carvalho, Giovanni Coco, José A.Á. Antolínez, Iñaki de Santiago, Mitchell D. Harley, Camilo Jaramillo, Kristen D. Splinter, Sean Vitousek and Colin D. Woodroffe.
More information, through the scientific article: ScienceDirect – Evaluating five shoreline change models
