IHCantabria proposes an innovative methodology to improve the estimation of the frequency of flooding in the M-30 in Madrid
The study shows that it is important to periodically update flood risk models with more recent and detailed data, as a fundamental step in adapting infrastructure to the effects of climate change
After half a century of operation, the M-30 remains a key road for vehicular traffic and mobility in Madrid, but its maintenance requires taking into account the risk of flooding
This week marked the 50th anniversary of the M-30, Spain’s first ring road, inaugurated on November 11, 1974. This emblematic road has functioned as an essential artery in the heart of Madrid, with more than 33 million vehicles per month today, which is almost the equivalent of the entire Spanish vehicle fleet. After five decades of operation, this road remains a vital infrastructure connecting Madrid and facilitating its mobility; however, its exposure to extreme weather events, especially flooding, poses significant challenges for its design and maintenance.
An innovative study, led by two researchers from the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of the University of Cantabria (IHCantabria), presents a novel methodology to improve the estimation of flood risks in critical infrastructures, such as the M-30, adapting it to the new requirements of climate change. Instead of assuming a direct relationship between precipitation and flow frequencies, the new method uses synthetic events and more complex scenarios, adjusted to current and future climatic conditions, to determine better flood occurrence frequencies.
The study was led by researchers Salvador Navas and Manuel del Jesus, from IHCantabria, in collaboration with Jaime Martín and Pablo Sánchez, from Ferrovial. This work responds to the growing need for greater accuracy in flood risk calculations in critical infrastructures, considering the effects of climate change and the need to adapt traditional risk assessment methods. Its results were recently published in the journal Ingeniería del Agua.
Pioneering approach to analyze the vulnerability of the M-30 to flooding
The investigation focused on the section of the M-30 that runs parallel to the Manzanares River, from the “Puente del Rey” to 700 meters downstream of the “Puente de La Princesa”. This sector, key to Madrid’s traffic flow and which includes the Calle 30 tunnels inaugurated in 2007, has experienced flooding episodes in times of heavy rains, affecting both road safety and the structure of the highway itself.
“Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters and have severe economic and social impacts. This study uses a stochastic generator, which produces synthetic series of events from probability distributions, to simulate extreme rainfall events and analyze their effect on the Manzanares River and the M-30,” the researchers explain. Using Gaussian copulas to model the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall, this methodology makes it possible to simulate more accurate flooding and adjust the design of infrastructure to complex hydrological conditions.
Findings and need for updating in infrastructure design.
One of the most relevant findings is that the current design of the Calle 30 tunnels may not be sufficient to withstand high magnitude flood events. While the original design estimated a resilience to floods of up to 500 years (with flows of 550 m³/s), the multivariate approach suggests that the infrastructure may be more vulnerable than expected. This underscores the importance of periodically updating flood risk models with more recent and detailed data as a critical step in adapting infrastructure to a changing climate.
Implication for future research
The study reflects IHCantabria’s commitment to the safety of urban infrastructure in the face of extreme events, and establishes a methodological model that can be applied to other urban areas exposed to similar risks. The authors emphasize that the use of approaches that integrate high-resolution data and synthetic event simulation is essential to reduce uncertainty in infrastructure design and adapt to the growing challenges of climate change.
In a context in which extreme events are intensifying, the study carried out by IHCantabria and Ferrovial marks a significant advance in flood risk analysis. This work, in tribute to the half-century history of the M-30, demonstrates the importance of adapting infrastructures to ensure their resilience and safe operation in the future.
The full content of the scientific article can be accessed through this link.
The exposure of infrastructure to extreme weather events, especially flooding, poses significant challenges for its design and maintenance
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 769373
