IHCantabria leads the National Climate Risk Assessment, a scientific reference for Climate Change Adaptation in Spain.

The Institute of Environmental Hydraulics of the University of Cantabria (IHCantabria) has led the scientific consortium integrated by IHCantabria, Tecnalia Research & Innovation and the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), which has acted as technical and scientific assistance for the elaboration of the Assessment of Risks and Impacts derived from Climate Change in Spain (ERICC-2025).

Promoted by the Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge (MITECO), through the Spanish Office for Climate Change (OECC), which has coordinated the project, it constitutes a national reference in the field of climate change adaptation. Under the scientific leadership of Íñigo Losada Rodríguez, Professor of Hydraulic Engineering and Research Director of IHCantabria, the consortium has developed a systematic assessment applied to the Spanish context, using the best scientific information available, and gathering and organizing the existing knowledge on the effects of climate change in different sectors and territories of the country.

A nationwide exercise based on the best available scientific knowledge

The ERICC-2025 Assessment is the first comprehensive exercise to identify and characterize climate risks on a national scale, designed to strengthen climate adaptation planning in Spain.

The document does not develop new models or quantitative analyses, but rather compiles, contrasts and synthesizes the best existing scientific and technical information, including previous studies, results of national and international projects, and observational data validated by the scientific community.

This approach provides an integrated and comparative vision of climate risks in Spain, structured on solid and verifiable bases, and adapted to the country’s public policy framework.

Main conclusions of the report

The study identifies 141 climate risks that affect health, the economy, ecosystems and biodiversity. Of these, 51 are considered key risks because of their severity or imminence, and 17 have low reversibility, meaning that they could cause permanent losses if immediate action is not taken.

Among the most significant impacts are the loss of biodiversity and fertile soils, salinization of coastal aquifers, sea level rise, and loss of land area through erosion and sea rise. Overall, the document shows that hazards do not act in isolation: more than 1,700 interrelationships between them reveal cascading effects that can amplify impacts on natural and socioeconomic systems.

The analysis, supported by the most recent scientific literature, confirms that the most severe climate change scenarios project an average increase of 2 to 3 °C by mid-century, reaching 5 to 6 °C by the end of the century, along with a sea level rise of 50 to 60 cm by 2100 and an increase in the risk of forest fires of up to 30% in the Mediterranean basin.

Contribution of IHCantabria

IHCantabria has led the scientific and methodological coordination of the consortium during the project, ensuring the coherence of the evaluation approach and the transversal integration of the results.

The Institute’s team has been involved in the main chapters of the report:

• Íñigo Losada Rodríguez, scientific coordinator of the consortium and co-author of the chapters General Methodology, Climate Variables, Coasts and Marine Environment and Financial System and Insurance Activity.
• Javier López Lara, author of the Executive Summary, contributor to the General Methodology and assistant technical director of the consortium.
• Laro González Canoura, and technical coordinator of the consortium, author of Tourism, Guidelines for Prioritization and co-coordinator of the Multicriteria Analysis.
• Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, co-author of the Multicriteria Analysis and contributor to the General Methodology.
• Alexandra Toimil Silva, author of the chapter Costas y Medio Marino.
• David Lucio Fernández, co-author of the chapter Climate Variables and contributor to Methodology.
• Silvia Fernández Rodicio, co-author of the chapter Financial System and Insurance Activity.
• Camino Fernández de la Hoz and Samuel Sainz Villegas, contributors in Natural Heritage, Biodiversity and Protected Areas.
• Moisés Álvarez Cuesta, collaborator in Tourism.

Presentation at the State Pact in the face of Climate Emergency

The report was officially presented on October 14 during the Convention of the State Pact against Climate Emergency, chaired by the Third Vice-President and Minister for Ecological Transition, Sara Aagesen, at CIUDEN headquarters (Ponferrada).

The session was attended by representatives of the OECC, BC3, Tecnalia and IHCantabria. Javier López Lara spoke on behalf of the Institute and presented the Methodological Guide for Climate Risk Assessment, which will serve as a reference tool for public administrations, productive sectors and private entities.

The opening day also included a keynote speech by Íñigo Losada Rodríguez, entitled “When the future catches up with us: risks and adaptation to climate change”, in which he stressed the need to strengthen resilience and anticipatory action in the face of the risks identified.

A scientific basis for climate action

The ERICC-2025 Assessment will serve as the technical basis for the second Work Program of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC) 2026-2030, providing structured information and prioritization criteria that facilitate evidence-based decision making.

This work positions IHCantabria as an international reference in the analysis and management of climate risks, and consolidates its commitment to science applied to the design of public policies and adaptation strategies in a context of growing climate urgency.

The complete document is available on the MITECO portal: https://ericc.adaptecca.es.